May 18, 2012

Parliamentarians to meet on proposed JA$612 billion budget

Peter Phillips

KINGSTON, Jamaica  From today (May 15) until Thursday the Standing Finance Committee of the House of Representatives will consider the Estimates of Expenditure containing the JA$612.4 billion in projected expenses tabled last Thursday.

The projected 2012/13 expenses under consideration include JA$375 billion earmarked for Recurrent (house-keeping) expenses and $237.4 billion for Capital (development) obligations.

The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Public Service gets the largest sum in the allocations, with JA$187.84 billion for recurrent expenses and $199.5 billion for capital expenditure. Much of the amount will go towards meeting Jamaica’s debt obligations.

The Ministry of Education receives the second largest sum with JA$73.8 billion for recurrent expenses and $2.3 billion for capital spending.

Ministry of National Security has received JA$44 billion for recurrent expenditure and $1.78 billion for capital, while the Ministry of Health gets $32.1 billion for recurrent expenses and $1.3 billion for capital projects.

For the Ministry of Justice, JA$3.69 billion has been allocated for recurrent and $433 million for capital; Office of the Prime Minister, $1.65 billion recurrent, $2.96 billion capital; Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining, $3.46 billion recurrent, $2.6 billion capital; and the Ministry of Transport, Works and Housing, $2.18 billion recurrent and $14.91 billion capital.

Allocations to other Ministries are: Agriculture and Fisheries, JA$3.11 billion recurrent, $3.77 billion capital; Industry, Investment and Commerce, $1.60 billion recurrent, $11 million capital; Water, Land, Environment and Climate Change, $2.13 billion recurrent, $1.88 billion capital; Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, $2.61 billion recurrent, $91 million capital; Labour and Social Security, $2.13 billion recurrent, $4.17 billion capital; Ministry of Tourism and Entertainment, $1.51 billion for recurrent; Ministry of Youth and Culture, $2.93 billion recurrent, $726 million capital; and Ministry of Local Government and Community Development, $7.5 billion recurrent, $537 million capital.

The Office of the Cabinet has received JA$494 million for recurrent spending, and $300 million for capital expenditure.

The Auditor General has received JA$346.5 million recurrent; Office of the Services Commissions, $148.5 million recurrent; the Governor-General and Staff, $118.5 million recurrent; Office of the Public Defender, $76.5 million recurrent; Office of the Contractor General, $209.6 million recurrent; Office of the Children’s Advocate, $84 million recurrent; Houses of Parliament $712 million recurrent; and Independent Commission of Investigations $288 million.

Minister of Finance, Planning and Public Service, Dr Peter Phillips will open the Budget Debate on Thursday, May 24.

Caribbean 360 News

Housing recovery slips out of sight

Any glimmer of hope that the housing market will stage a recovery in the upcoming months has vanished, thanks to the recent spate of bad economic news that has been making headlines over the past several weeks.
According to the latest analysis of home price trends in 384 markets based on the Fiserv/Case-Shiller Indexes, it will be well into the first quarter of 2013 before median home prices across the nation will even be on par with prices from the first quarter of this year.

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And that’s not saying much. During the first quarter of 2011, prices fell in 302 of the 384 housing markets tracked by the Fiserv/Case-Shiller index, dropping by an average of 5.1% year-over-year.

As a result of continued weakness on the jobs front and the debt ceiling fiasco, Fiserv pushed back its projections of a housing market turnaround by three months. Now, it doesn’t expect home prices to start gaining any ground until the second quarter of 2012.

Where the jobs are
Instead, Fiserv expects median home prices to continue to fall by an average of 3.1% between March 31 of this year and March 31, 2012. After that, it expects to see prices increase by 2.7% until the first quarter of 2013.

“Every piece of bad news causes more people to be more nervous,” said David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, which provides information management and analyses data for the financial services industry. “The stabilization of housing markets depends greatly on household confidence in the strength of the economic recovery. Unfortunately, recent economic news has done little to build confidence.”

There still, however, is no shortage of housing inventory. More than 3.75 million existing homes in June alone were on the market, according to the National Association of Realtors. At the latest rate of sales, it would take 9.5 months to exhaust that inventory, about 50% longer than what NAR considers a healthy housing market.

“I don’t think we’ll see an increase in sales until we see the economy improving,” said Fiserv’s Stiff.

Hopes for that economic rebound seem to be fading. The percentage of Americans who have jobs reached a 28-year low in July. So, even though housing affordability is better than ever — Fiserv’s data shows that prices have fallen from their peak by nearly a third nationally and mortgage rates have hit rock-bottom — too few people can take advantage of the affordable housing costs because of tightened lending standards.

Some markets, however, will fare better than others

In the Miami metro area, for example, where prices fell 54% from the peak, Fiserv forecasts a further plunge of 22.8% over the 24 months ending March 30, 2013. Fiserv estimates that another hard-hit market, Las Vegas, will plunge another 19.3%, Ft. Lauderdale will see declines of 18.9% and Phoenix will take another 15% hit.

Some smaller metro areas could also get hammered. In Ocean City, N.J., prices are predicted to plunge 26.9% through March, 2013; in Naples, Fla., Fiserv forecasted a 21.2% drop; and in Destin, Fla., it projected a 13.6% decline.

Foreclosures fall in most U.S. cities
Stiff said markets that are ripe for a turnaround will be in the Pacific Northwest. The biggest gainer is expected to be Tacoma, Wash., where Fiserv said prices will rise nearly 25% by March 2013. Seattle and Portland’s prices are expected to stay flat through next March and then record double-digit gains of just over 10% each over the following 12 months.

“Homes are undervalued in the Northwest,” said Stiff, “the economy is diverse and the demographics strong. It has tech, manufacturing and extractive industries (like lumbering and mining) and people are still moving into the area.”

Ocala, Fla. (23.9%), Palm Bay, Fla. (18.3%), Mobile, Ala. (18.5%) and Madera, Calif. (18.2%) are also expected to record big gains.

By: Les Christie
CNN News

Moody’s warns again on U.S. debt

Credit rating agency Moody’s dinged a key backup plan to raise the debt ceiling Monday, and said the United States would be better off if the ceiling was eliminated entirely. Lawmakers appeared to make little or no progress on the debt ceiling over the weekend, and the deadline to raise the country’s legal borrowing limit is now just over two weeks away.

On Monday, Moody’s threw some cold water on a backup plan that is gaining momentum among lawmakers as the chances of a compromise deal fade. The plan, crafted by Sens. Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid, would allow the debt ceiling to be increased, while shifting the political blame for that action from Congress to the White House.

The measure would allow for three short-term increases of the debt ceiling while at the same time letting lawmakers register their disapproval. The first increase would boost the debt limit by $700 billion and the next two by $900 billion each.

Moody’s said that part of the plan would reduce pressure. “Any proposal that reduced the risk of payment disruptions would be a positive step in the short term,” the report said.

CNN News

My degree isn’t worth the debt!

Master’s in public health from University of South Carolina; Bachelor’s in biology from Clemson University

In my early years after high school, I wavered between trade school and college, but eventually opted for college and earned a Bachelor’s in biology.

I quickly found work, but at an abysmal wage of $7.25 per hour, which did not even allow me to live on my own.

After an exasperating year at that wage, I decided to go back to school and I graduated in 2004 with a Master’s in Public Health, thinking I was on the road to recovery.

During that time, I had been married, had a child, gotten divorced, and ended up raising my son on my own. I took a low paying government job in Southern Florida, and because I couldn’t even make the minimum payments on my debt, I took forbearance after forbearance.

I have had a good life, but now at age 37, the weariness of carrying this financial burden frustrates me to no end.

My son is nine years old now and will want to attend college when he graduates high school. But what will I tell him? First I have to decide if the college degree is worth the debt. I hope by the time he is making his decision, I will have figured it out.

CNN News

Cost of prom rises, leaving many kids left out



It’s one of the most celebrated high school experiences, where love is discovered, friendships are fostered and memories are made.

At least that’s how prom looks in the movies.

The reality is that those “midnight masquerades,” “enchantments under the sea” and “midsummer night’s dreams” have become the latest battleground between the haves and have-nots in this country.

Between tickets, attire, shoes, accessories, flowers, limousines, photographers and after-parties, the average family with a high school student attending the prom spent a whopping $807 this year, according to a recent survey by Visa.

But nearly a quarter of families spent nothing at all — because they could not afford to let the kids go. “Some people are opting out entirely because times are tight and the social cost of admission is so high now,” said Jason Alderman, director of Visa’s financial education programs.

While some teenagers and their parents are willing to shell out close to $1,000 or more on their junior or senior prom, others, like 16-year-old Emily Butler, simply cannot afford it.

Although both her parents work, they have been hit hard by the real estate slump in Northern California and lost their home to foreclosure.

CNN News 

Summer vacation or bust

After years of staycations, Angela Barnes and her family travelled to Disney World for their summer vacation. But they cut a lot of costs from the budget.

Like the Griswolds, Americans are ready to hit the road for their summer vacation. More people are choosing to travel this summer after years of staying home, according to recent reports.

In an American Express survey, 59% of Americans said they are planning a trip this summer, up from 51% in 2010.

But because most consumers feel particularly cash-strapped as the recovery sputters, this year’s summer vacation is more in line with “Walley World” than “European Vacation.”

“Americans are planning more vacations this summer,” said Claire Bennett, senior vice president and general manager of American Express Travel. “However, they are still looking for options with great value.”

Most people say they will stay relatively close to home and opt for a destination within driving distance. In fact, automotive group AAA estimated that 88% of the 34.9 million Americans that traveled over Memorial Day weekend, traveled by car.

Only about 20% of Americans plan to fly to domestic destinations this summer and just 14% will head overseas (thanks to the steep cost of international travel), according to a separate report by MasterCard.

Airline fees: The $500 surprise

Driving nearly 1,000 miles from Indianapolis to Disney World in their Toyota Seinna was all Angela Barnes’ budget would allow. The 33-year old marketing consultant hadn’t taken a vacation with her husband and two young children in years, but “we made it a priority this year that we were going to go away,” she said. (See 8 great road trip cars)

In order to stay within their means, Barnes sought out deals online and scored a two-bedroom villa in Orlando for just $99 a night, a 50% discount she negotiated through Sheraton by forgoing maid service during their three-night stay.

The Barnes also opted stay with family in Atlanta along the way in lieu of a hotel.

“With a little leg-work, the total, including gas, hotel, food and extras — like a massage for me — for our family of four was $1,200,” she said.

And worth every penny, Barnes noted. “It made me realize we need to do this more often.”

$67 billion in vacation days, wasted

Overall, vacationers plan to take an average of two weeks for a trip, and spend an average of $1,200 a person, or a few weekend-getaways, spending just $300, Amex said.

Suba Jagan is also planning a few frugal trips. She and her husband will camp this summer in the national parks, like Sequoia, near their home in Southern California.

“This way we can save money, get away from technology for the weekend and unwind,” Jagan said, even though it’s a far cry from the trips to Hawaii and New York that they used to take in better economic days.

According to CampingWorld.com, one of the largest online retailers of camping equipment, sales are already up 9% compared to the start of last summer.

“We did the calculation and figured we can take eight such trips for the cost of just one week long vacation that includes airfare,” Jagan said.

Total cost for a weekend of camping is just $300 for the two of them — including marshmallows, she said. To top of page

Is my financial adviser shady?

Money Magazine)

 – My financial adviser recently moved to another company and has invested my IRA in a program he calls “active trading.”

He assures me that the professionals doing the trading know how to make considered movements based on market conditions. I’m not so sure. What’s your advice? – Gary S., Augusta, Maine

I think you’re absolutely right to be wary about this arrangement. Granted, I don’t know how long you’ve worked with this adviser, what sort of relationship you have with him and how much you feel you trust him.

But I’ve seen investors separated from their money so many ways over the years — from Bernie Madoff-type ripoffs to auction-rate preferred securities that were pitched as money fund equivalents to hedge funds run by supposed superstars that imploded — that simple assurances that these guys know what they’re doing just won’t cut it.

What you need are real answers to serious questions. And if your retirement stash is already invested with these traders, you need the answers pronto. What kind of questions am I talking about?

Well, to start with who are these professionals? What are their qualifications? Do they work for the same firm as your adviser? Or do they work for an outside firm that invests money for your adviser’s firm and others? How did your adviser choose this program, and what others were considered? Why, specifically, does your adviser see this program as a fit for your IRA?

How to safely invest your retirement cash

You’ll also want to know exactly what these people are trading. Stocks, bonds, options, precious metals, pork belly futures? How often do they buy and sell; just how “active” are they? Do they have a strategy? How long have they been following it and what are their performance results in both up and down markets? Is their track record audited? And how much are you paying for their services?

Is it an annual fee based on a percentage of assets they oversee? If so, what’s the charge — 1% a year, 2% a year, more, less? Do they also get a percentage of any trading profits? (Many hedge funds operate on “2 + 20″ basis — that is, 2% of assets plus 20% of profits.)

And does your adviser get a portion of the traders’ fees — or does he collect his own on top of the traders’ take? And about those trades — do you pay separately for them or are they included in the management fee?

Ultimately, you want to know what you’re paying in total fees on your account. Once you start getting much above 1% or so a year, I think you have to wonder whether it’s possible to generate performance superior enough to compensate for the drag of fees.

A reputable adviser should be happy to answer such questions. But you can also find answers to most of these questions by checking out the “ADV” form that advisory firms are required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission or state securities office.

The form comes in two parts. You should read both, but it’s part 2 that provides info on the services offered, fees, the background of the advisors, potential conflicts of interest and describes run-ins, if any, with regulators.

Starting this year, investment advisers are required to provide plain-English versions of part 2 of the ADV, so it shouldn’t be a problem for your adviser to give you one for whichever firm is running this investment program (and his own firm, if they’re not one and the same).

For more on what’s in the ADV form, how to get one on your own and how to evaluate advisors, click here and here. While you’re at it, make sure you know where your investment stash is being held.

Get your retirement back on track

Neither your adviser nor the traders should have direct access to the balance in your account. Rather, your account should be overseen by an independent trustee, such as a trust company or custodian bank.

You should also get statements from that trustee in addition to any you might receive from your adviser or his firm. That reduces the chances of an unscrupulous adviser fooling you with fake performance reports.

I have to tell you that even if this operation proves to be on the up and up — and I’m not suggesting you’ll find otherwise — I’d still be wary of having a significant portion of my retirement savings riding on someone’s trading prowess.

The more an investor trades, the more costs he or she incurs, which makes it harder to generate enough extra return to outweigh the effects of those costs.

That’s one reason why it’s so tough for actively managed funds to outperform basic market indexes over the long-term after taking fees and risk into account. And even if your adviser shows you an impressive performance record racked up by these traders, I’d still have reservations.

Fact is, it’s very difficult to tell how much of ostensibly superior performance is the result of skill vs. luck, not to mention how much is the result of a particular strategy being well suited for a particular set of market conditions that may or may not prevail in the future. (For an insightful look at this issue, check out this recent analysis titled Untangling Skill and Luck by Legg Mason chief investment strategist Michael Mauboussin.)

All of which is to say that, if this were my money, I’d be more inclined to invest it in a way that gets the most of the gains the financial markets deliver over the long term than to bet on the ability of traders to somehow enhance the markets’ underlying return.

And the best way to harness the power of the markets, while managing risk, is to create a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds (or stock funds and bond funds) and keep costs down.

I think the best way to do that is to build a portfolio of low-cost index funds, devoting enough to stocks to have a decent shot at long-term capital growth and enough to bonds to provide stability and income.

For more on how to settle on a mix that makes sense for you, you can read our MONEY 101 lesson on Asset Allocation and check out our Fix Your Mix calculator.

If, after establishing such a core portfolio with your IRA and other retirement savings, you feel you have enough extra money you want to devote to a strategy with more panache, fine.

But even then I think you have to ask yourself (and your adviser) what’s so special about this particular trading program when there are so many investment pros peddling all manner of strategies.

So start asking those questions I outlined above. If the answers don’t completely assuage the doubts that you obviously have about this program, maybe you need another strategy or another adviser, or both.